Political coup in Canada; Dion to replace Harper as new PM
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com…
2 Dec 2008
TORONTO: In a political coup, Canada’s three opposition parties have joined hands to oust the just elected minority government of Prime Minister
Stephen Harper.
In a deal signed by the Liberal Party and the New Democratic Party (NDP) and backed by the separatist Bloc Quebecois in Ottawa on Monday, the first two parties will form a new government, with the third supporting them from outside.
Under the deal, Liberal Party leader Stephane Dion will become the new prime minister till May when his party chooses a new leader to replace him.
Dion has sent a letter to Governor-General Michaelle Jean - who is away in Europe - about the decision of the combined opposition to defeat the current government in the House and form a coalition government.
The coalition deal will last till June 30, 2011, when the two parties will review their relationship. But the Bloc Quebecois, which is supporting them from outside, said it will back the coalition only till June 30, 2010, and then review the arrangement.
The cabinet will have 18 ministers from the Liberal Party and six from the NDP. It will be the first time since 1926 that a Canadian government will be replaced without an election.
In the 308-member House of Commons, the ruling Conservative Party has 143 MPs, the Liberal Party 77, the NDP 37 and the Bloc Quebecois 49.
In the Oct 14 general election, Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party was returned with a tally of 143 seats in the 308-member House of Commons. But it fell short of the 155-seat majority mark, leading to the current crisis.
Curiously, the man (Dion) who will be Canada’s new prime minister had led his Liberal Party to its worst-ever defeat in decades, reducing its tally from 95 to 77 in parliament.
He is scheduled to step down in May when his party chooses a new leader who will then become the prime minister.
What brought the opposition parties together was the last week’s economic update by the ruling party which failed to announce any package to stimulate the economy and cut public funding for political parties.
An outraged Prime Minister Stephen Harper said Canadians will not like the overturning of “the results of an election a few weeks later in order to form a coalition nobody voted for and everybody denied.”
http://www.nytimes.com…
Canadian Parties Form Alliance That Could Replace Government
By IAN AUSTEN
OTTAWA — With the announcement of a formal alliance among opposition parties, Canada moved closer Monday to removing its Conservative government without holding an election.
If the pact — signed by the Liberal and New Democratic parties and the Bloc Québécois — is successful at dislodging the Conservatives, it will be the first time since 1926 that the federal government has changed hands without a vote.
Coalition governments are rare in Canada, and the opposition plan still faces constitutional and political uncertainties.
Adding to the political turmoil is speculation about how Prime Minister Stephen Harper, whose government is outnumbered by the opposition in Parliament, will respond. Over the weekend, the Conservatives tried to stifle the movement against them by withdrawing some economic proposals, including an end to public financing of political parties, that angered the opposition parties and prompted the negotiations that led to their alliance.
There is speculation that Mr. Harper, having failed to fend off the opposition through concessions, may end the current session of Parliament to at least postpone his government’s removal.
Before anything can happen, however, the opposition must defeat the remnants of the government’s economic plan that set off the turmoil. Because Mr. Harper declared the plan a confidence measure, its defeat would also bring down his government. That vote is expected to be held next Monday.
“Mr. Harper, like him or not, has shown himself to be a particularly bold leader,” said Scott Reid, a prominent Liberal who was director of communications for Paul Martin, a former Liberal prime minister. “One’s strength can sometimes also be one’s weakness.”
The center-left Liberals and the New Democrats, who are backed by labor, have agreed to form a coalition until June 30, 2011. The Bloc Québécois, which wants to separate Quebec from Canada, would not join the coalition but agreed to support it at least until the middle of 2010.
Under the plan, Stéphane Dion, the Liberal leader, would become prime minister. Because Mr. Dion resigned following his party’s poor showing in October’s election, he would turn over the prime minister’s office to whomever the Liberals chose as leader at a convention in May.
The New Democrats, who have never held power at the federal level, would be given 6 posts in a 25-member coalition cabinet, although the key position of finance minister would be reserved for a Liberal. If the confidence measure is struck down, Governor General Michaëlle Jean, who represents Queen Elizabeth II as the nation’s head of state, will find herself drawn into the debate.
Mr. Harper has said that following a defeat, he would ask her to dissolve Parliament and call an election, despite the proximity of the last vote. The new coalition, however, wrote Ms. Jean on Monday to indicate that it was prepared to take power if the government fell. Most constitutional scholars believe that the governor general will give the opposition that opportunity.
http://www.ctv.ca…
What’s in store for Harper’s political career?
Updated Tue. Dec. 2 2008 5:11 PM ET
CTV.ca News Staff
Experts are divided on the future of Stephen Harper should a proposed Liberal-NDP coalition government take power, even temporarily.
Given that the only mechanism for removing Harper from the leadership would be a convention vote, said political scientist Faron Ellis, Harper may be able to stay on as opposition leader long enough to wait for the coalition to fall apart.
Although confidence among Harper’s caucus is likely shaken, Conservative MPs will rally around their embattled leader to ensure party solidarity, according to Ellis.
“If he faced a caucus revolt or something like that, then he has to make a determination about whether or not number one, he wants to stay and fight it out or number two, if he can,” Ellis, a political scientist at Lethbridge College and an analyst for the Conservative Party, told CTV.ca. “And I would think that if he determines that he wants to, he certainly can.”
On Monday NDP Leader Jack Layton, outgoing Liberal Leader Stephane Dion and Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe signalled their intention to defeat the Conservatives in a confidence vote next week and form a coalition government.
The move is largely a reaction to last week’s economic update, delivered by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, which left out a plan for stimulating the slumping economy and included cuts of public funding to the political parties.
Experts agree that Harper likely misjudged the political climate, and assumed that the opposition would not send Canadians to the polls again by voting against the plan.
Now he is left with few options.
Harper may be able to cling to power if he asks Gov. Gen. Michaelle Jean to prorogue Parliament until some time in January, a move that could come as early as today.
“If she agrees, which is not necessarily a given, he brings Parliament back early in January and at that time brings in a budget, which offers stimulus, is particularly appealing to Quebec, and says to the Parliament: Support this or fight an election,” Toronto Star columnist Jim Travers said Tuesday on CTV Newsnet.
“In which case he is back in control of the situation. Wounded, yes, damaged, yes, but back in control of the situation.”
Others believe that should the Liberals and NDP take power, Harper would likely choose to leave politics rather than lead the opposition or serve as a mere MP under a new leader.
Freelance political consultant Gerry Nicholls, who worked with Harper at the National Citizen’s Coalition, said Harper would likely not let himself get pushed out of the leader’s chair.
“I think he would quit politics altogether,” Nicholls told CTV.ca. “I could not see him being second banana in any scenario.”
Calling Harper “the Genghis Khan of Canadian politics - he likes to wage war, total war,” Nicholls said the party funding measure was an attempt to bankrupt the Liberal Party.
Harper has long felt that the ideal political climate would be to have a Conservative party up against a socialist party, Nicholls said, and the economic update may have been his attempt to realize that goal.
“The blind spot was the coalition. I don’t think a lot of people thought about this,” Nicholls said.
No matter what happens, Harper will have to take the blame for the current political crisis.
“Stephen’s chief adviser is Stephen. That’s always the way it’s been. He considers himself the top strategist,” Nicholls said. “And so I think that if there’s any blame that this didn’t work, then I think that blame has to be assigned to the prime minister.”
Which leads Nelson Wiseman, an associate professor of political science at the University of Toronto, to conclude that Harper’s political career may well be over.
Wiseman believes that Harper’s political capital has depreciated so much, that “he’s probably toast.”
“By calling the election, he was too clever by half,” Nelson told CTV.ca. “And now in introducing what he did in the fiscal update, the stranglehold on party financing, he demonstrated that he’s two clever by three-quarters.”
Harper’s biographer, William Johnson, author of “Stephen Harper and the Future of Canada,” disagrees.
“I think he’ll stay on because he’ll realize it’s a very jerry-rigged government,” Johnson told CTV.ca. “It will bring about a crisis and he’ll want to be there to deal with it, even if he’s leader of the opposition.”
http://www.americablog.com…
Canadian left forms alliance that could unseat Bush crony
John Aravosis (DC)
Change (it’s spelled the same way in Quebecois):
With the announcement of a formal alliance among opposition parties, Canada moved closer Monday to removing its Conservative government without holding an election.
If the pact — signed by the Liberal and New Democratic parties and the Bloc Québécois — is successful at dislodging the Conservatives, it will be the first time since 1926 that the federal government has changed hands without a vote.
Coalition governments are rare in Canada, and the opposition plan still faces constitutional and political uncertainties.
Hat tip to Dan “He’s not just about sex” Savage.
